The companies in the 5G industry chain on the PCB sector have the largest overall increase
The companies in the 5G industry chain on the PCB sector have the largest overall increase
From June to the present, the companies in the 5G industry chain on the PCB sector have experienced the largest overall increase. The 12 companies selected are: Shennan Circuit, Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd., Jingwang Electronics, Eaton Electronics, Boyin Electronics, Pengding Holdings, Shenghong Technology, Dongshan Precision, World Games Circuit, Mingyang Circuit, Aoshikang, Xingsen Technology.
1.PCB output value In recent years, the global PCB market has shown a steady growth trend. According to Prismark data, the global PCB output value in 2018 was approximately US $ 62.396 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Among them, the scale of China's PCB output value reached 32.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 10% year-on-year, far exceeding the average growth rate of global PCB output value. Looking back at the Chinese PCB market in the past ten years, the growth rate of China's PCB output value has far exceeded the global average, and it can even grow against the trend when the global negative growth.
The 2.5G era has spawned the incremental space of the PCB industry. Previous upgrades of base stations will bring about a round of reconstruction of existing base stations and a wave of new base station construction. With the promotion of 5G, the base station construction mode covered by the 5G "macro station + small station" network is promoted, and there will be a huge market demand at that time. According to CCID Consulting's forecast data, the number of 5G macro base stations is expected to reach 4.75 million by 2026, which is about 1.45 times the 3.28 million 4G base stations at the end of 2017. The number of supporting small base stations is about twice that of macro base stations. It is 9.5 million, and the total number of base stations is about 14.25 million. PCB is an indispensable electronic material in the construction of base stations. Such a large amount of base stations will generate huge PCB incremental space. From the perspective of the downstream terminal market, the emergence of 5G will greatly change people's lifestyles (such as 4K + ultra high-definition video viewing, online AR / VR, cloud office, cloud gaming and other new experiences) and is important to all industries Impact, in the field of communication, PCB will also generate huge market demand.
Regarding the PCB market space measurement of 5G macro base stations and room substations, it is assumed that:
1: Each macro station contains three AAUs and one BBU (CU & DU).
2: AAU contains antenna system (vibrator & feeding network), transceiver unit (DSP; DAC / ADC; PA; LNA; Filter and other devices), in which the vibrator (including the PCB material itself) is integrated on a PCB (including the feeding network) ), The area of the transceiver unit is mainly based on two PCBs, PA and TRX. The PA board is integrated on the TRX board.
3: The size of the antenna base plate is about 0.4 * 0.75m, using high-frequency materials such as Rogers4730 (ceramic hydrocarbon materials, thermosetting), etc., 2-4 layer boards, some use 6 layer boards, the unit price is close to 10,000 yuan / square meter, and the double panel can be low. To 3300 yuan / square meter, in this calculation take the average price of 7300 yuan / square meter (based on 3300 accounting for 40%, 10,000 accounting for 60%). The size of the antenna element is about 28 * 28mm, and the number is 64. Generally, Panasonic M4 high-speed material can be used, and the unit price is about 2,000 yuan / square meter.
4: There are 10-20 layers of TRX boards. The materials are generally high-speed materials such as Panasonic M4, the size is about 0.4 * 0.75m, and the unit price is about 4,000 yuan / square meter.
5: The PA board is integrated on TRX. There are 4 panels in total, each of which has a size of about 0.15 * 0.18m, and the double-sided panel (such as Rogers 4350) made of high-frequency CCL ceramic substrate, with a unit price of about 2300 yuan / square meter.
6: The size of BBU is not much different from 4G. There are a total of 3-5 boards with a size of 0.48 * 0.3m, 20-30 layer boards, 9,000 yuan / square meter, Panasonic M4M6M7 and other high-speed substrates.
The value of PCB in 5G macro base station is about 15104 yuan / station, and the value of PCB in room substation is about 30% -40% of macro station, about 5286 yuan / station. It can be seen that the amount of PCB value of 5G macro base stations is 3.2 times that of 4G (4,692 yuan), and the room for improvement is relatively large.
Considering the progress of 5G construction, assuming the pace of macro base station and room substation deployment in 2018-2022, it can be concluded that the incremental market space brought by 5G base station construction to PCB in a single year (assuming that the value of single station PCB & CCL decreases by 6% per year).
It can be seen that in the peak year of 2022-2023, the annual demand for PCBs brought by the construction of 5G base stations is about 21-240 billion yuan (of which mainland China accounts for about 50% -60%), compared with 8 billion yuan in the 4G era. It is nearly a three-fold improvement.
The corresponding CCL (mostly high-frequency and high-speed CCL) market space is about 8 billion yuan (of which mainland China accounts for about 50% to 60%), and the 2.5 billion yuan corresponding to the 4G era is nearly a three-fold increase.
In terms of structure, assuming that the PCB price of each part decreases by 6% each year, the market space for the peak year of the PCB for antennas is about 8 billion yuan / year; the PCB market space for TRX is about 4 billion yuan in peak years; the PCB market for PAs The peak year of space is about 900 million yuan; the PCB market space for BBU is about 5 billion yuan.
Tracy
Tracy